Friday, May 26, 2017

On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 19

Fig. 1 Trend
First, a couple of quotes relevant to today's post:

"Concerning graphs of climate change and sea level change, the truth is in the trend line, not in the facts of the seesaw / sawtooth pattern."

"Scientists have discovered that 'the present' has always existed, but some of them are not sure about 'the past' and 'the future'." (Dredd Blog quotes page).

Next, a word about Dredd Blog graphs.

The "trend," when it comes to graphs, is the direction things are going, all things considered (Fig. 1).

"Cherry-picking" is choosing a segment of the data that is not in accord with the trend.

The historical portion of graph data is composed of in situ measurements.

The portion of a graph that is either before or after the historical portion is called "then."

All graphs are composed of then + now + then (past, present, and future), or some partial combination of those three concepts of time.

Fig. 2
I say "then" in the sense that both the past and the future are calculated by using the present to calculate what is estimated to have happened previously, because we have no in situ measurements for that period of time.

The same goes for what is calculated as "what is going to happen," because we have no in situ measurements for that period of time either.

And finally, the in situ measurements that we do have, even when taken in the present, may not be robust, may not be comprehensive.

That is, there may be gaps in the data because measurements have not yet been taken at each and every location related to the issues presented in a graph.

Fig. 3 These patterns must match
That is why there is a Dredd Blog series titled "The World According To Measurements."

I have "the past" and "the now" working on the final software modules being used to shed some light on the issue of thermal expansion and contraction.

Those modules are used to experiment with, and to explore that concept.

I consider it an important issue because it has been described as "the major cause of sea level rise in the 19th and 20th centuries."

Regular readers know that I have expended a lot of time and effort researching that hypothesis, and that I do not agree with that hypothesis (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18).

Fig. 4
The melting Cryosphere is the major cause of sea level rise, and fall, in terms of adding mass to the oceans.

In addition to that, "ghost water" adds to sea level rise and fall without adding to the mass of the ocean (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8; The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4).

Thermal expansion and contraction do not add to the mass of the ocean either, however, they do contribute steric thermal sea level changes because they increase and decrease the ocean volume intermittently.

But not in a major quantity, that is, thermal expansion and contraction are minor players in sea level changes that equate to trends.

Today's graphs include historical measurements, and projections into the past, but do not yet include future projections.

That is next on the agenda.

The new modules do not use the global ocean volume value (1.37 x 109 km3) because WOD measurements are not available for every zone on the planet.

So, I use the volume value of each zone used in each layer used.

Layers are made up of up to 36 zones (if there are no measurements in a zone, or the zone is land only, i.e. no ocean water, it is excluded).

The zone volume is calculated (a zone's volume gets smaller the further away from the Equator, and the closer to the polar region it is), then added up to become that layer's volume of ocean water.

This is more accurate than using the entire ocean volume, since some zones and even one layer at Antarctica (layer 17) is not used.

The graphs at Fig. 2 and Fig. 4 offer patterns for comparison, so readers can see that the thermal expansion hypothesis does not pass muster.

Sea level rise patterns compare to atmospheric and land surface temperatures, while the thermal expansion pattern matches ocean water and salinity patterns.

The addition of the TEOS-10 library is a must for these types of situations:
The more prominent advantages of TEOS-­‐‐10 compared with EOS-­‐‐80 are:

• For the first time the influence of the spatially varying composition of seawater is systematically taken into account through the use of Absolute Salinity SA. In the open ocean, this has a non-­‐‐trivial effect on the horizontal density gradient, and thereby on ocean velocities and “heat” transports calculated via the “thermal wind” relation.

• The new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity SA, is measured in SI units (e.g. g kg −1 ).

• The Gibbs function approach of TEOS-­‐‐10 allows the calculation of internal energy, entropy, enthalpy, potential enthalpy and the chemical potentials of seawater as well as the freezing temperature, and the latent heats of melting and of evaporation. These quantities were not available from EOS-­‐‐80 but are essential for the accurate accounting of “heat” in the ocean and for the consistent and accurate treatment of air-­‐‐sea and ice-­‐‐sea heat fluxes in coupled climate models.

• In particular, Conservative Temperature Θ accurately represents the “heat content” per unit mass of seawater, and is to be used in place of potential temperature θ in oceanography.

• The thermodynamic quantities available from TEOS-­‐‐10 are totally consistent with each other, while this was not the case with EOS-­‐‐80.

• A single algorithm for seawater density (the 75-­‐‐term computationally-­‐‐efficient expression v SA ,Θ, p ) can now be used for ocean modelling, for observational oceanography, and for theoretical studies. By contrast, for the past 30 years we have used different algorithms for density in ocean modelling and in observational oceanography and inverse modelling.
(Getting Started with TEOS-10, PDF). Good stuff.

Anyone know the basic argument supporting the hypothesis "the major cause of sea level rise in the 19th and 20th centuries" is thermal expansion?

The previous post in this series is here.

Thursday, May 25, 2017

The World According To Measurements - 4

Fig. 1
I am showing you a graph generated by the beta module using the TEOS-10 library (Fig. 1).

Regular readers will remember that the WOD data only went back to about 1966.

So, to compare GISS and PSMSL data, which go back to the 1800's, I needed to write procedures and/or functions to reverse engineer those expectations (the future in reverse if you will).

Pane One (upper left) shows actual GISS "surface" temperature anomalies going back to 1880, and Pane Two (upper right) shows the same for the PSMSL world.

Pane Three (lower left) and Pane Four (lower right) are projections into the past, back to 1880, based on measurements we have going back to 1966.

I had some guidance on Pane Three, which was oceanography data indicating that the upper 700m of the ocean indicates a 0.10 deg. C increase in that shallow layer during that time frame (that pane shows a 0.45791 deg. C for the entire ocean depths).

The other module will be finished tomorrow, so long as the ongoing party ends by then.

See also (On The Origin of Ghost Heat & Temperature, 2).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

On The Origin of Ghost Heat & Temperature - 2

Fig. 1 "Say it ain't so Joe"
I have incorporated the aforementioned TEOS-10 library into my repertoire of software modules (Terrarists - 2).

I am impressed with it to the point of considering it to be a permanent fixture in the Dredd Blog toolbox.

As far as I am concerned, in terms of quality scientific endeavors, it is on par with the World Ocean Database (WOD) and the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL).

The four-panel graph @ Fig. 1 shows TEOS-10 at work with WOD and PSMSL (hey, don't forget me too folks).

Panel One (upper left) of that graph is generated using GISS surface data (1880-2016); Panel Two (upper right) is generated using PSMSL tide gauge station data (Databases Galore - 19); Panel Three (lower left) is generated using WOD (CTD, PFL) data from all WOD zones with measurements at all ocean depths; and Panel Four (lower right) is generated using the TEOS-10 library while processing the aforesaid WOD datasets.

Fig. 2 Originally posted here
Why sea level is rising (Fig. 1, Panel Two) in a pattern that matches very closely to the surface temperature (Fig. 1, Panel One) pattern (while at the same time the ocean temperature and thermal expansion-contraction patterns do not) is what this Dredd Blog series is about.

The gist of it is that confusing ocean "heat content" with the ocean "surface" temperature (e.g. 0-750 m) is not robust research:
"According to the paper, arguably, the most appropriate single variable in Earth's system that can be used to monitor global warming is ocean heat content integrated from the surface to different layers and to the bottom of the ocean."
(Oceans act as a 'heat sink': No global warming ‘hiatus’, emphasis added). Skimming the surface while avoiding 90% of the global heat sink is Agnotology in action (Agnotology: The Surge, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19) if not Smoke & Fumes in action.

Anyway, the improvement  brought by TEOS-10 is limited to the thermal expansion-contraction variable "thermal expansion coefficient" (see "gsw_alpha" here).

Previously, before TEOS-10, I had only a few coefficients  to use (see link @ Fig. 2), so I had to choose the closest one in any particular case.

Now, I generate them (using the TEOS-10 function "gsw_alpha") on the fly from exact salinity and temperature measurements, and the result is more precise (even though the pattern is very similar - see here).

The next step that I am now working on, is to take the thermal contraction back to 1880 to match the GISS surface temperature dates and the PSMSL sea level dates.

Stay tuned.

The previous post in this series is here.



Monday, May 22, 2017

Terrarists - 2

Fig. 1 History and Herstory
I.  Whoopie Do!

Why all this hoopla about going to Mars (Climate Change Is Turning Antarctica Green) ?

Whoopie do !

Who funds "Climate change is turning Antarctica green" types of gallows non-humor besides The Biggest Criminal Enterprise in History ... (don't you wonder sometimes why Oil-Qaeda doesn't move to Mars) ?

Yep, and leave us earthlings alone (You Are Here)!

But I digress.
Fig. 2 Watts Up With That?

The graph at Fig. 1 shows a similarity between temperature change and sea level change.

It is much more similar than sea level change compared to thermal expansion caused sea level change shown on a graph (Fig. 2).

The lack of evidence for "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise in the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries" is something that regular readers know I am researching and writing about.

I wonder sometimes if Humble Oil-Qaeda, a.k.a the Terrarists, are the only ones who know about it being warming temperatures, not thermal expansion, that is putting the ice sheets into the oceans and causing "sea rise."

II. New Science Toolbox

I am going to post "A Brief History of Thermal Expansion" soon, with graphs going back to the years shown in Fig. 1, because I have not seen any graphs that show realistic thermal expansion history going back that far.

Most graphs about that subject are like the graph patterns shown in Fig. 2 (going back only to the late nineteen sixties).

I am remodeling some software modules so they will use a very recent library (Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater: TEOS Manual, PDF) for, among other things, the purpose of calculating the sorely needed thermal expansion coefficients.

The thermal expansion coefficient tables available and used in previous posts were inadequate to that reverse engineering task (see e.g. Fig. 1c @ The World According To Measurements - 3).

I have that TEOS library compiled and working, so all I need to do is splice it into the already existing modules that calculate thermal expansion going back only fifty years (we'll go back at least to 1880 then).

Here are some quotes from the documentation of the new thermodynamic tools, showing that it is sorely needed:
1 Introduction and FAQ
• What is TEOS-10?

"In 2010, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) jointly adopted a new standard for the calculation of the thermodynamic properties of seawater. This new standard, now also endorsed by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), is called TEOS-10 and supercedes the old EOS-80 standard which has been in place for 30 years. It should henceforth be the primary means by which the properties of seawater are estimated."
(TEOS Website). For those who choose to use TEOS-10, they ask that we use this citation: "Note that when referring to the use of TEOS-­‐‐10, it is the TEOS-­‐‐10 Manual which should be referenced as IOC et al. (2010) [IOC, SCOR and IAPSO, 2010: The international thermodynamic equation of seawater – 2010: Calculation and use of thermodynamic properties. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Manuals and Guides No. 56, UNESCO (English), 196 pp.]. "

There I did it.

III. Conclusion

See you soon with some thermal expansion history that will raise eyebrows.

The previous post in this series is here.