Friday, October 30, 2015

Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 51

Bad Science: "Don't Ask Don't Tell"
This post is about being perplexed at what can be missed by science professionals.

Specifically, it is about an erroneous, peer reviewed paper, published this year in the reputable journal Nature.

Regular readers know that I have criticized the statements made in the paper as quoted by some science writers to wit: "An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010" (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion - 2).

One statement made in the abstract of the paper being discussed in today's post is quite a strong and deliberate one:
Within this 2-year period, the coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by 128 mm. This magnitude of interannual SLR is unprecedented (a 1-in-850 year event) during the entire history of the tide gauge records.
(Nature 2015). Wrong, at least to the degree that my research shows otherwise, as clearly revealed by the tide gauge record extracts contained in the table below.

The following table is a list of PSMSL tide gauge stations (highly reputable) compiled from annual data downloaded from that site, and then placed into an SQL database.

I wrote a C++ utility / routine to query that SQL database, extract any one-year fluctuation (in millimeters) that are larger than the two-year fluctuation they got all verklempt about, then create the following HTML table with that data in it:

Station NameNumberLatitudeLongitude↕mmYear
FOGLO-DEGERBY24960.031883220.38481712121996
PAGO-PAGO539-14.2799997-170.69000242421999
WEIPA1157-12.6666670141.86666871801972
VICTOR-HARBOUR1069-35.5624809138.63540651391997
PORT-ADELAIDE-OUTER-HARBOR448-34.7797623138.48072811371972
BUNBURY834-33.3234444115.65997311302011
FREMANTLE111-32.0655556115.74813841391940
ST-GEORGES-ESSO-PIER-BERMUDA36832.3733330-64.70333101521974
ILHA-FISCAL1032-22.8966675-43.16666791691971
NEW-WESTMINSTER124549.2000008-122.91666412211977
SAINT-JOHN-NB19545.2666664-66.06666561292014
QUEBEC-LAUZON17346.8333321-71.16666411651948
DESCHAILLONS20146.5666656-72.09999853462012
PORT-SAINT-FRANCOIS13746.2666664-72.61666875302012
TROIS-RIVIERES12646.3333321-72.55000317841944
BATISCAN14446.5000000-72.25000003922008
PORTNEUF95146.6833344-71.88333132261999
NEUVILLE19246.7000008-71.56666561901999
ST-JOSEPH-DE-LA-RIVE124447.4500008-70.36666871551980
TUKTOYAKTUK100069.4166641-132.96665951521967
ANTOFAGASTA-2510-23.6530552-70.40444181321973
VALPARAISO499-33.0272217-71.62583161411997
PENRHYN1450-9.0166674-158.06666561821983
BAKAR35345.299999214.53333281331951
SPLIT-RT-MARJANA68543.508331316.39166641582011
GEDSER12054.572776811.92555621912007
RODBYHAVN76254.655834211.34861092871980
KOBENHAVN8255.705001812.60000041311961
HORNBAEK11956.091110212.45833301421961
HIRTSHALS8957.59555449.96388911381961
HANSTHOLM70357.11888898.59555631401984
ESBJERG8055.46083458.44111061681996
SANTA-CRUZ1472-0.7500000-90.31666562351997
KEMI22965.673370424.51524932481939
OULU-ULEABORG7965.040313725.41823392431961
RAAHE-BRAHESTAD24064.666336124.40704922461961
PIETARSAARI-JAKOBSTAD19463.708568622.68958282331961
VAASA-VASA5763.081531521.57118232171939
KASKINEN-KASKO28562.343948421.21483232201996
MANTYLUOTO17261.594383221.46343232171996
RAUMA-RAUMO37661.133533521.42581752121961
TURKU-ABO23960.428283722.10053252201961
HANKO-HANGO7159.822868322.97658352031996
HELSINKI1460.153633124.95621682441996
HAMINA31560.562767027.17919922481961
MARSEILLE6143.27880105.35385991501951
POTI4142.166667941.68333441831970
BATUMI5141.633331341.70000081681949
SASSNITZ39754.510833713.64305591481996
WISMAR-2853.898887611.45805641381952
PREVEZA41038.959079720.75662801291991
PIRAIEVS37437.937328323.62671471321992
ALEXANDROUPOLIS123840.844139125.87827111402011
APRA-HARBOUR-GUAM54013.4383326144.65333562311972
TAI-PO-KAU-TOLO-HARBOUR103422.4424992114.18389131731970
HANASAKI-II144243.2780571145.56777951361995
KAMINATO-II-HATIZYO-SIMA144033.1302795139.80471806182002
MIYAKE-SIMA106034.0672226139.48083502952001
KOZU-SIMA106134.2091675139.131668111432007
KURE-I132033.3336105133.24333191392005
KANTON-ISLAND-B1329-2.8166671-171.71665951541998
KLAIPEDA11855.700000821.13333322161996
KWAJALEIN5138.7316666167.73500061351997
ACAPULCO68616.8333321-99.91666411321982
YAP-B12519.5166674138.13333132051997
DELFZIJL2453.32638936.93305591471877
HARLINGEN2553.17555625.40944391481996
DEN-HELDER2352.96444324.74499991341866
MAASSLUIS951.91749954.24972201311866
VLISSINGEN2051.44222263.59611111451903
WHANGAREI-HARBOUR-MARSDEN-POINT1065-35.7574310174.35003661301992
HONNINGSVAG126770.980316225.97269631451975
ANDENES42569.326065116.13484761381952
NARVIK31268.428283717.42575841541984
KABELVAG4568.212638914.48214911581961
BODO56267.288291914.39081291641984
ALESUND50962.46941386.15194611691961
BERGEN5860.39804465.32048701661920
OSLO6259.908557910.73451041661984
OSCARSBORG3359.678073910.60486131552011
KARACHI20424.811666566.97499851301979
MALAKAL-B12527.3333330134.46665952491998
BALBOA1638.9666672-79.56666561321989
MANILA-S-HARBOR14514.5833330120.96666721482008
MURMANSK68468.966667233.04999921341989
UST-KARA60069.250000064.51667021712013
VISE-VISE-OSTROV70479.500000076.98332981751991
DIKSON61173.500000080.40000152731990
SOPOCHNAIA-KARGA91771.866668782.69999691911967
IZVESTIA-TSIK-IZVESTIA-TSIK-OSTROVA72875.949996982.94999692031975
STERLEGOVA-STERLEGOVA-MYS61275.416664188.90000152251967
KOTELNYI-KOTELNYI-OSTROV64176.0000000137.86666873981995
SANNIKOVA-SANNIKOVA-PROLIV60274.6666641138.89999391861997
KIGILIAH64273.3333359139.86666871641967
PEVEK60669.6999969170.25000001881967
TUAPSE21544.099998539.06666562221922
NAGAEVO82759.5499992150.71665951882005
SANTANDER-I48543.4612999-3.79080011491947
LA-CORUNA-I48443.3685989-8.39774991381956
KUNGSVIK211358.996666011.12722211322011
SMOGEN17958.353611011.21777821731992
STENUNGSUND211258.093334211.83250051301996
KLAGSHAMN33055.522220612.89361102741991
SIMRISHAMN210755.557498914.35777761501996
KUNGSHOLMSFORT7056.105278015.58944421731952
OSKARSHAMN210657.275001516.47805601861996
OLANDS-NORRA-UDDE6957.366111817.09722141651900
VISBY210557.639167818.28444481911996
MARVIKEN210458.553611816.83722112001996
STOCKHOLM7859.324165318.08166692011996
FORSMARK210360.408611318.21083262101996
SPIKARNA121162.363334717.53111082161996
RATAN8863.986110720.89500052311961
FURUOGRUND20364.915832521.23055652331939
KALIX210165.696945223.09611131952011
KO-TAPHAO-NOI4467.833333098.43333442941981
FORT-PHRACHULA-CHOMKLAO-POM-PHRACHUN44413.5500002100.58333591431967
HOLYHEAD553.3139458-4.62044381581960
SAND-POINT-POPOF-IS-AK163455.3366661-160.50166321291989
ANCHORAGE106761.2383347-149.88999941311968
SELDOVIA107059.4399986-151.72000121421989
SEWARD26660.1199989-149.42666631301989
SKAGWAY49559.4500008-135.32666021301989
ASTORIA-TONGUE-POINT26546.2066689-123.76833341431948
CRESCENT-CITY37841.7449989-124.18166351351984
SAN-FRANCISCO1037.8066673-122.46499631461984
ALAMEDA-NAVAL-AIR-STATION43737.7716675-122.29833221491984
GALVESTON-II-PIER-21-TX16129.3099995-94.79333501481976
WASHINGTON-DC36038.8733330-77.02166751531996

The color red is used on some of the larger fluctuations shown in the "↕mm" (SLF/SlR mm) column.

Note that they (Goddard & Yin) did not even mention sea level fall or ice sheet mass / gravity (see the Mitrovica video below for the concept).

Like way too many others, they exclusively and erroneously attribute the inordinate fluctuation to land rise, land subsidence, thermal expansion, or currents.

However, those are not the main players, as I show above and elsewhere.

The reality in SLC fluctuation, (SLR / SLF), the "coin of the realm" if you will, is  ice sheet mass / gravity loss (e.g. Proof of Concept, 2, 3, 4, 5).

If they would just "take time to think" as Mitrovica, in the video below, counsels, they would realize that the land does not rise and fall four feet in a hundred or less years.

Further, "isostatic rebound" limited to ~10 mm yr. only in the area on land specifically covered with ice.

Land levels outside that perimeter fall / "subside" (Observation of glacial isostatic adjustment in “stable” North America with GPS).

To the contrary, SLC takes place a thousand kilometers, or more, away from the location where the ice sheet was / is located on land.

That SLC hinge point moves a greater distance as ice mass lost in large quantities continues (c.f. The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points).

This shows that the reality of conflicting SLR / SLF is ice sheet induced, via ice sheet melt / calving, and consequent loss of mass / gravity.

This is a reality still not in the thinking of way too many scientists.

Next post of this type is here.

"They didn't have a clue." -Mitrovica



"Ice streams are not like ice cubes." - Rignot



2 comments:

  1. That area is impacted by Greenland in terms of SLF and Antarctica in terms of SLR.

    ReplyDelete